Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

As a dad who has spent three days with his son in the hospital, because of this “rare heart inflammation,” I think it okay for me to grumble about this article:

Let me ask you this, how much is a tween physically like a late twenties individual?  Is 12-30 or 12-29 really a normal medical age grouping? (I think the fact that someone in their twenties would never be at a children’s hospital, like my son is, pretty much answers that question.)

They are not the same. So, why do we keep getting statements like this?:

This is out of approximately 296 million doses of the vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna distributed nationally through June 11, 52 million of which were given to children and adults age 12 to 30, the agency said.

Of the 1,226 cases of heart inflammation, or myocarditis, reported after vaccination, 1,194 involved recipients age 12 to 30, the data showed.

And this?:

However, for every 1 million second doses of the two-dose vaccines administered to males age 12 to 29, 11,000 COVID-19 cases, 560 hospitalizations, 138 ICU admissions and six deaths due to the virus could be prevented, the agency said.

In comparison, there will be an estimated 39 to 47 cases of myocarditis following vaccination in this age group, CDC said.

Especially since they admit this:

Most cases of the side effect, which can cause serious health problems, have been reported in younger males, the agency said.

Short version: They are padding the denominator. (I also suspect they are under-counting the numerator.)

In my opinion, throughout the pandemic, we have been manipulated with statistics. We are provided with numbers that support the current narrative, versus ones that allow us to truly understand what is going on so we can make informed decisions.

A true reckoning of the risk to my son would have been based on male tweens, not an age band that starts with them and then goes significantly into adulthood (and, it appears, includes both biological sexes).

What is the COVID-19 risk, say, for 12-15 year old males? What, then, is the risk for myocarditis (or other severe reactions) for the same demographic?

My guess is the answer would lead to less of a slam-dunk assurance:

Still, “the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination to individual persons and at the population level clearly outweighed the risks of myocarditis after vaccination,” the agency researchers wrote.

Does it mean if you have a 13 year-old son, as I do, you shouldn’t have them vaccinated?

I cannot tell you one way or another.

However, given what happened to my youngest, I recommend a little “vaccination hesitancy,” and would encourage you to avoid data that (intentionally or unintentionally) is manipulated to support the “damn the torpedos, full speed ahead” approach we have with vaccinations right now.

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