Simpson’s “Paradox” and Mortality Rates of the COVID-19 Vaccinated Versus Unvaccinated

If you’ve read much of this blog, you realize I am untrusting and skeptical of much of the COVID-19 narrative. However, that doesn’t mean that I can be credulous about counter-claims, just because they confirm my take.

For instance, Nassim Nicholas Taleb responds to the “fact” that the mortality rates for the vaccinated are higher than the unvaccinated:

The punch line:

It’s a statical artifact and when is it, you know, misleading? When the bracket is very large and you don’t have homogeneous populations…and you have uneven, the solution, of the population, between the two samples.

Taleb tweet(I hope I transcribed that correctly.)

Basically, with COVID-19, if the vaccinated population is heavy on folks who die at a much higher rate (the elderly) and the unvaccinated is heavy on those who do not (the young), then Simpson’s “Paradox” kicks in. Overall, the mortality rate for the vaccinated can seem higher, even though at smaller brackets (e.g. 10 year age bands) it is the reverse.

Now, I haven’t seen the underlying data, so I cannot confirm what Taleb says, other than his statistical logic is sound…and that I have found him to be a trustworthy fellow who goes where the mathematics takes him.

Oh, and I have personally seen something similar in some data analysis I had to do months back. In certain locations, it appeared a minority population was being underserved in vaccination statistics, but it was less so when you took into account age. (That minority population in those areas was younger than the non-minority one, there was a huge push to vaccinate the elderly, and vaccinations weren’t even open to some of the younger age brackets.)

Remember folks, lies, damn lies, and statistics. Unless, of course, you use statistics carefully and honestly.


All Lives Matter

There was a time that where saying, “All lives matter” could be seen as a retort to, “Black lives matter” (although I suspect it was almost never meant that way).

If the father of Ahmaud Arbery can emphatically state, “All life matter,” then I think we can safely, together, exclaim, “All lives matter!”

“Let’s keep doin’ and making this place a better place for all human beings.”

“Love everybody.”

Amen Marcus. God bless you.

“Is my cat Turing-complete?”

Opal with a Christmas tree Answering the questions that need to be asked…

“Is my cat Turing-complete?

As humorous as the article is, it does so to make a legit point at the end:

Jokes aside, cat-computing is the name I give to this generalized practice. In my experience, it happens quite often that when someone discovers a new feature of a language, they begin to use it everywhere, just because they can and they want to.

However, just like you can execute code using a cat but shouldn’t, it’s not because you can use a feature that you should.

P.S. The kitty in the image is Opal, before she grew up. She would even hide inside the bottom of the Christmas tree. 🙂

Cross-posted on my Data Guy (Me) blog

Makes You Think

This article is worth a full read:

Put aside your existing views, digest what Paul Kingsnorth has written, and then consider…

But it is clear enough by now that the Narrative is not true. Covid-19 is a nasty illness which should be taken seriously, especially by those who are especially vulnerable to it. But it is nowhere near dangerous enough – if anything could be – to justify the creation of a global police state. As for the vaccines – well, let’s just acknowledge that vaccination has become a subject which it is virtually impossible to discuss with any calmness or clarity, at least in public. As with almost every other big issue in the West today, opinion is divided along tribal lines and filtered through the foetid swamp of anti-social media, to emerge monstrous and dripping into the light.

And yes, something is wrong:

We all have a breaking point, and we all should, because this is the means by which our human intuition screams to us that something is wrong. This is mine. I will not go along with what is happening. I will not validate what is emerging. I will resist it. I will take my stand.

Will you take a stand?

Will I?

Why this?

Why this?

MemeBecause of what is behind this:

Hat tip:


Totalitarian inclinations are never satisfied…

P.S. However, it’s not quite as bad as it seams:

The mandate applies to gatherings of those who live in a different homes but meet together in one location, and it was imposed in light of rising COVID-19 cases in the area, according to ABC 7.

Per this article:

Songs that Remind Me of My Children and Grandchildren

This song came up on one of my Spotify playlists (“Tusk and Bone” by Shaman’s Harvest):

Every time I hear it, I imagine the early conversation is me, Poppy, telling stories of old to my granddaughter. It makes me smile, because she makes me smile.

This is another song that I imagine I’m the grandfather, near end of life, answering his grandchild about whether he has been to heaven:

(BTW, the version of “Been Through the Water” by Kyle Matthews I fell in love with is this live one. I couldn’t find a video.)

Oh, it makes me smile too.  If you listen to the “conversation” between grandson and grandpa, you’ll understand why. 🙂

Finally, when I hear this tune (“Fade in, Fade out” by Nothing More), I imagine it is me singing the chorus to my oldest son. Why him? Dunno for sure, and I don’t want to overanalyze it:

I am blessed by God to have four wonderful children and one cuter-than-a-button granddaughter. If any of you ever see this, I love you more than the world…and I am proud of you.

Kudos to the Women’s Tennis Association

Update: Wow…

Original post…

There may be a sport that hasn’t sold its soul:

And here are a couple of formal statements from the WTA:

Kudos to the WTA.

Tempted, but…

If I wasn’t on a diet…

To save you from clicking through to find out:

“This delicious sandwich is celebrating it’s big Five-O today and as a gift to all of us, will be offered at it’s original price, back in 1971, of 63 cents.”

These Are People’s Lives

When you read the title of this article and then watch this video, you’ll like come away with one of two takes of whose lives I am talking about…

Which take did you have?

If Solomon Had Such a Huge Kingdom…?

Some arguments against biblical history have to do with the lack of evidence of the large kingdom it says Solomon had. Where are the remanents of the cities?!

This article does not prove the accuracy of the biblical account, but it counters arguments from silence (that abscence of [expected] evidence is not evidence of abscence):

By the way, if you are a Bible-believer and read the article, you’ll start off feeling good, then feel miserable, then feel good again. 🙂

If the Smithsonian Magazine is this even-handed with how they approach subjects in general, I may just subscribe.